Assessing the Uncertainty of Hydropower-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management under Climate Change

To balance the water demands of different departments and produce a win–win result for reservoir operation, series conflict-resolution methods have been developed to define socio-optimal operation strategy specific conflict problems. However, given inherent uncertainty brought by climate change, compromised strategies selected can vary. Therefore, quantifying impacts change on decision characteristics help address questions about whether decisions are sustainable unforeseen changes. In this study, Yangtze River is regarded as study area. As world-class hydropower project located midstream River, Three Gorges Hydroelectric Power Station transfer plenty energy into electricity. alleviate ecological shortage caused balanced considering two needs be studied. context hydropower-environmental management, behaviors fuzzy social choice four game-theoretical bargaining under 25 kinds future scenarios analyzed. Comparing selection results period (2021–2082) shows that in all proposed scenarios, Nash method, alternating offer unanimity fallback method more stable than other studied methods, which means affects these three slightly. addition, could formulate adaptable policies would satisfy interests environmental stakeholders equally, avoid very low satisfaction level individual stakeholder whole water-conflict year. against background an increasing demand protection, provide economic benefits resource management.